Bloody Russia pt 3 - End Game
The beginning of the end ..?
1. Intro 2. Mindset 3. Defence and Offence 4. Air 5. Artillery 6. Armour 7. Naval 8. Asymmetric Warfare 9. Winter & Spring Thaw
Today we're going to take a third look at the war being waged by Russia against Ukraine. 215 days have passed since the invasion began. In that time we've seen the Russian offensive stopped and then pushed back from Kiev and now Kharkiv in the east. And so Putin, inspired perhaps by his St Petersburg’s rat story, is doubling down, making threats proclaiming annexed Ukrainian territory is now part of mother Russia, rattling the nuclear sabre. But this won't work, the Ukrainians are winning, they are highly motivated, morale is strong and the culmination approaches. And the endgame for Putin’s Russia.
Now of course we don't know what will happen to Russia and Putin: perhaps some murky figure from the FSB (ex KGB) will remove Putin and after a couple of days silence we will be introduced to the new leader of the Russian Federation. Or if the Russians get lucky (and the rest of us into the bargain) there will be a citizen's revolution like the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine in February 2014, the war curtailed and a real attempt at democracy beginning in Russia. A third option, Putin is removed by the army, but don't hold your breath on this, the army is a mess and run by incompetents and crooks; as we've seen Sergei Shoigu, head of the army, is an engineer by profession. Lastly the Russian Federation might just collapse, the empire sundering into a mish-mash of countries and fiefdoms, no doubt ready to argue with their neighbours about borders and some with access to nuclear weapons. We don't want that.
No doubt there are other possibilities, but whatever we think, Putin is finished, in some fashion Russia will collapse and most important Ukraine will win the war
so it goes,
Tom Assheton and James Jackson
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