Bloody Russia pt 2 - Tipping Point
Recorded 27 May, Released 31 May
1. Introduction 2. Evolution of the conflict 3. Where things stand 4. Putin 5. The Battlefield – land, air, sea 6. Predictions and conclusions 7. PS The intelligence game
Over three months in the grinding war in Ukraine, events have shifted their focus to the Donbas. Even here, where the Russians have a distinct advantage in artillery and rocket forces, and where its supply lines are shorter, the Ukrainians continue to go toe to toe with their enemy. Russian gains have been slow and often amount to little more than squeezing out salients and pushing out Ukrainian forces from areas already dominated by Russia. Attrition of Russian forces has been heavy, witnessed by their recourse to 1960’s vintage T62 tanks. Ukrainian losses have also been heavy in this relentless campaign, yet large supplies of weaponry from the US and others will continue to be a game changer and allow Ukraine both to defend its territory and to mount selective counter- offensives. Kherson, northeast Ukraine and the east of the Dnieper will all be areas to watch. Russian failures will continue to mount and its inability to dominate the air space will undermine any offensive thrusts that it chooses to make.
We believe that by the end of August, after a war lasting 6 months, Russia will have truly lost its way and its aggressive impetus.
So it goes,
Tom Assheton & James Jackson
Putin the Putrid - essay by James Jackson Feb 2015 read by Joe Pelissier
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